Aleksandr Dugin - Wikipedia [The author is sometimes referred to as "Putin's brain."]
Russia's Mistakes in the Post-Soviet Space and Ways to Correct Them
© RIA Novosti / Ramil Sitdikov
Alexander Dugin
The South Caucasus is a serious problem for Russia. However, as well as all neighboring countries, with the exception of Belarus. Relations with Minsk are fundamental and reliable. Everything else is highly problematic.
It's all about the lack of a clear strategy. Over the past 30 years, Russia has been moving in three directions at the same time:
· sought to integrate into the Western-centric global world (at first on any terms, then, under Putin, on the condition that independence was preserved);
· strengthened its own sovereignty (both in the face of the West and in the face of neighboring states);
· It tried to play a leading role in the post-Soviet (imperial) space and partly to promote (haphazardly, fragmentarily, and inconsistently) Eurasian integration.
All three vectors pulled the country in different directions and required mutually exclusive strategies. As a result, we found ourselves where we found ourselves after the start of the special military operation: in a direct confrontation with the West over the post-Soviet space.
However, we still hesitate to publicly announce the goals of the NWO in their geopolitical dimension. And we should have calmly and coolly admitted that we would fight until the complete surrender of the Nazi regime in 1999. Kiev and the establishment of direct military-political control (and this is the only meaning of demilitarization and denazification) over the entire territory of the former Ukraine. And we are ready to fight only as long as it takes for Victory. This would be a clarity that would immediately affect our entire strategy in the near abroad: Russia will not tolerate Russophobic regimes and tendencies anywhere and under any circumstances.
For all our inconsistency and lack of system, geopolitics itself has demonstrated a very important law in recent decades. The territorial integrity of any post-Soviet state can only be guaranteed by positive or neutral relations with Russia. An attempt to go directly to the side of the enemy (and the West is an enemy, and this is an axiom of geopolitics, anyone who doubts it is apparently an ignoramus or a foreign agent) jeopardizes the territorial integrity of the country that decides to take such a step.
It started back in the 90s – Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh (then in the Azerbaijan was the Russophobic globalist government of the Popular Front), South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Transnistria is still frozen. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are separated from Georgia in response to Saakashvili's act of aggression, urged on by Soros and globalist forces (in particular, Henri-Bernard Lévy). Armenia under Pashinyan, challenged Russia, and Baku, on the contrary, acted skillfully and friendly, and as a result, Nagorno-Karabakh became Azerbaijani instead of Armenian. As long as Kiev was multi-vector, it had both Crimea and Donbass, and Kherson region, and Zaporozhye. Then territory after territory began to come out of it, and since Russophobia did not subside and turned into a real war with the Russian world, Ukraine will no longer exist at all.
The West to no one on the territory Eurasia He cannot guarantee territorial integrity, all his promises are a bluff. Yes, the West is still capable of inflicting serious harm on Russia at the cost of destroying an entire country (as is now the case in Ukraine). But something to preserve, to protect, to build, to create, to organize... It's not for them.
But let's get back to Transcaucasia.
If we want the real integration of the Eurasian space, we must have a coherent plan, not just a series of reciprocal — albeit sometimes effective — steps. We need to be proactive. In fact, the West itself never believes in its promises to those countries neighboring Russia that embark on the path of direct geopolitical Russophobia. No matter what they come up with, it is enough for the West to start a conflict, and if as a result an ally is torn apart, dismembered and destroyed, it does not touch him. For Russia, they are much more than that. Even without the pathos of friendship between peoples, this is simply our common, united land. And these are peoples who are united with us in their historical destiny. No matter how much the treacherous elites paid for by the West convinced them of the opposite.
If the West wants to open a second front in the South Caucasus now, especially in light of the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, it will be quite easy for it to do so.
Pashinyan, who heads Armenia, which is still Russia's ally, is completely under Western control. He surrendered Karabakh and did not lift a finger to protect the Armenians. He led the country to ruin, and the West was obviously ready for this and contributed to it in every possible way.
But the Pashinyans come and go, but the people remain. Will it be morally calm for us, Russians, to watch Armenia turn into bloody chaos – going down the road? Libya, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine?
It is unproductive to sit and wait for the Armenians to wake up and realize that such a ruler is disastrous for Armenia. They do not wake up and do not wake up in any way, only shouting slogans prepared by Soros and burning Russian passports at our embassy. This is only one, and the most obvious, point of probable arson Caucasus.
Many fear that the South Caucasus will begin to take a more active stance in a way that is unfriendly to Russia. Turkey, which considers itself a full-fledged accomplice in Azerbaijan's victory in Nagorno-Karabakh. More often than not, these fears are exaggerated, as Turkey's priorities are to strengthen and maintain influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, in the zone of the former Ottoman Empire. And only then, and then mostly under pressure NATO and United States — Ankara plans for the Caucasus or the Turkic world of Eurasia. Turkey is not a direct antagonist of Russia, but if the South Caucasus flares up, it will be every man for himself.
Be that as it may, we found ourselves in a difficult situation in the South Caucasus. In fact, the West can blow it up at any time if it decides to open a second front. And all we have to do is react. Yes, sometimes we are very good at it – all the enemy's calculations collapse and have the opposite effect. It happens. But not always.
Therefore, it is worthwhile, without wasting time, to start full-fledged and decisive strategic planning: how do we want to see the South Caucasus and how to bring this picture to life? And at the same time, to make a final decision regarding the entire post-Soviet space. If we want to see it friendly and allied, well, even neutral, then we must make it so. On its own, it will not become so, or it will cease to be.
It's time for Russia to go on the offensive. In Ukraine, in the South Caucasus, in Eurasia as a whole. We need offensive realism. Plans, cold and sober analysis, and effective, well-directed actions.
